Niger’s military government survived its most serious internal challenge since 2023, after Russian paramilitaries helped loyalists crush an attempted coup in Niamey last Saturday.
Soldiers from the Russian Defence Ministry’s Africa Corps were called in after mutinous soldiers seized the airport’s Base 101 and attacked the presidential palace and national television.
The rebels were eventually driven from the base, with Russian forces reportedly using kamikaze drones to force some of them to surrender.
The Nigerien Ministry of Defence attributed the violence to a “spontaneous outburst” involving soldiers who had breached military regulations.
Niger has been led by General Abdourahamane Tiani since a coup in July 2023. He has moved the country closer to Russia and away from Western partners, notably former colonial power France.
Yvan Guichaoua, a senior researcher at the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies, told RFI the attacks on three strategic sites point to an attempted coup rather than a mutiny that simply escalated.
“Curiously, the ‘spontaneous outburst’ version is the one being repeated by Niger’s official media,” Guichaoua said. “But paradoxically, they also stress that these people were supposedly inspired by [alleged] French attempts to destabilise the country.
So there’s clearly some hesitation within the authorities themselves over how to describe what happened.”
“Given the way events unfolded and the fact that the presidential palace, national television and the airport were targeted, I would personally lean towards an attempted coup rather than a mutiny that escalated,” he added. “Why?
Because targeting these three strategic locations has been the classic pattern of coups for decades.”
Guichaoua noted that the key location was Base 101 at the airport, which houses special forces along with other troops.
He said there was talk of a unit called Agali, based in Dosso, as one of the first specific details identifying those behind the coup attempt.
As the day went on, events centred increasingly on Base 101 and the special forces there.
“In broad terms, I think several units of young soldiers coordinated the attacks,” he said. “But it’s still unclear exactly who attacked or who, for example, tried to storm the presidential palace.
We don’t have a precise account of what happened or who was responsible at the different locations where clashes took place.”
One theory circulating since Sunday evening, Guichaoua said, refers to soldiers who feel they are being treated unfairly or exposed to too much danger compared to other parts of the army.
Living conditions in the barracks have also been deteriorating for quite some time, he said, with discontent or protests within the barracks regularly reported by pro-Bazoum propaganda channels.
Former Nigerien president Mohamed Bazoum was ousted in the 2023 coup by members of the presidential guard and armed forces led by Tiani.
“Each time, the question is whether this will eventually turn into an attempted coup or a more ambitious protest movement,” Guichaoua said. “This is the first time we’ve seen that discontent materialise.”
He added that there may also be more political factors involved, including whether senior officers were involved.
“For now, we have no information allowing us to establish in detail the chain of command of those who took part in this initiative.”
On why the insurgents failed to seize the presidential palace and national television, Guichaoua said the military balance of power was against them. “The presidential palace is well defended.
The presidential guard, the unit most loyal to General Tiani, is well equipped. So taking it on was apparently too big a challenge for the putschists.
They came up against resistance from the presidential guard.”
The situation at the television station was more ambiguous, he said, with uncertainty throughout the day about which side the Republican Guard would take, amid rumours that some army units might switch sides.
“In these circumstances, there are inevitably a lot of people waiting to see what happens,” he said.
Guichaoua drew a parallel with 2023, when Bazoum fell. “The outcome wasn’t decided within a few minutes.
It took two or three days, with army units joining the putschists, probably out of pragmatism and opportunism.”
He noted that the putschists were never able to communicate publicly.
“If they really had taken control of the studios, we would have seen the classic statements announcing the suspension of the Constitution and calling for the president to be removed,” he said. “None of that happened.
The fact that the putschists were never able to communicate publicly also leaves their motivations unclear.”
On the role of Russian Africa Corps assistance, Guichaoua said it appears to have been decisive.
“There were also official statements from the Russian ambassador to Niger saying that he had been asked for help, that assistance from Africa Corps had been requested and that it had been provided.”
He said the exact form of that assistance is not known from official sources close to the regime, but observers and security sources indicate kamikaze drones were used quite intensively.
“They may have persuaded the rebel officers and soldiers to surrender because they were causing too much damage among their ranks,” he said.
“So I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that the Russians saved the day, or at least helped contain the rebellion and the attempted coup.”
Asked whether the uprising is a sign of weakness for Tiani, Guichaoua said that in the short term, he has won a victory. “He managed to preserve his regime and stop and neutralise the rebel soldiers.”
In the longer term, however, Guichaoua said the episode will make things more difficult for him. “First, the Russians’ involvement and their decisive role in retaking the base make the regime dependent on Russia.
Tiani now owes the Russians something.”
He also noted that the presidential guard carried out the operation fairly independently, working alongside the Russians, and that there is still no clear picture of the decision to launch the assault on the base.
“Throughout Saturday, there were rumours that not all senior officers agreed with the idea of eliminating these young soldiers who had expressed their discontent.”
One likely consequence, Guichaoua said, is that there will have to be repair work within the ranks to restore a degree of cohesion.
“On the one hand, it sends a signal to anyone who might try to challenge the regime and will probably act as a deterrent.
On the other, it creates a clearer divide between the presidential guard and the Russians on one side and the rest of the army on the other.”
He added that Tiani is already very concerned about foreign interference and the risk of destabilisation, and this concern will likely become even stronger, leading to more “coup-proofing” measures. “But resources are limited.
Anything devoted to protecting the regime won’t go towards protecting the territory or fighting the jihadist groups and rebels that are multiplying in the east of the country.”
Source: allAfrica.com