Akpabio’s 2027 Vow: A Test of APC’s Southern Strategy and Akwa Ibom’s Political Calculus
The Report
As reported by Daily Post Nigeria, Senate President Godswill Akpabio has declared that Akwa Ibom State will deliver the highest number of votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the South-South geopolitical zone during the 2027 general elections. Akpabio made the assertion during a consultation with critical stakeholders of the All Progressives Congress (APC) at the Government House in Uyo, where Governor Umo Eno formally met party members over his re-election bid for 2027.
“The event of today shows that Governor Eno is a peaceful governor, a man of God in words and in deeds. His peaceful disposition and ability to carry everybody along has given us the assurance that in the South-South geopolitical zone, Akwa Ibom will deliver the highest number of votes,” Akpabio said.
Akpabio also praised Governor Eno’s humility in consulting party members despite having no challenger for the party’s ticket, and commended ongoing development projects in the state, including the commencement of international flights at the Victor Attah International Airport. He further stated that the people and government of Akwa Ibom were grateful to President Tinubu for supporting one of their sons to the position of Senate President, and would demonstrate their appreciation at the polls in 2027.
WANA Regional Analysis
Against this backdrop, Akpabio’s bold prediction must be weighed against the historical electoral realities of Akwa Ibom State. Since the return to democracy in 1999, Akwa Ibom has been a stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), delivering landslide victories for PDP presidential candidates in every election except 2015, when the state still voted for PDP’s Goodluck Jonathan over APC’s Muhammadu Buhari. In 2023, Tinubu secured only 160,000 votes in Akwa Ibom, compared to PDP’s Atiku Abubakar who garnered over 214,000 votes, and Labour Party’s Peter Obi who won the state with 132,000 votes. The APC’s performance in the state has historically been marginal, often trailing behind both PDP and, more recently, the Labour Party.
The broader implications for the ECOWAS region suggest that Akpabio’s statement is less a reflection of current political reality and more a strategic positioning for the 2027 campaign. The Senate President, a former governor of Akwa Ibom and a key APC figure in the South-South, is attempting to signal to the presidency that the party can make inroads into a traditionally hostile region. However, the claim that Akwa Ibom will deliver the “highest number of votes” in the South-South for Tinubu is a high bar, given that states like Rivers and Edo have larger voter populations and have shown more consistent APC support in recent cycles.
What is particularly instructive is the timing and context of the statement. Governor Umo Eno, a PDP member who defected to the APC only after the 2023 elections, is still consolidating his position within the party. His decision to consult stakeholders despite having no challenger is a sign of internal party fragility, not strength. The APC in Akwa Ibom remains a coalition of former PDP members and political opportunists, lacking the grassroots machinery that the PDP has built over decades. Akpabio’s promise, therefore, may be more aspirational than predictive, reflecting the need to project confidence ahead of a challenging election cycle.
For West Africa, this episode underscores a recurring pattern in the region’s politics: the gap between elite political declarations and on-the-ground electoral realities. In countries like Ghana, Nigeria, and Côte d’Ivoire, ruling parties often overstate their support in opposition strongholds, only to face sobering results at the ballot box. The Akwa Ibom case will be a bellwether for whether the APC can truly break the PDP’s southern dominance, or whether Akpabio’s rhetoric is merely a prelude to another cycle of disappointment for the ruling party in the South-South.
Original Reporting By: Daily Post Nigeria