Petrol Consumption Defies Price Surge: Nigerians Burn 52.4 Million Litres Daily as War Premiums Bite
The Report
As reported by Channels Television, Nigeria’s daily consumption of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) rose by 10.78 per cent in April 2026 to 52.4 million litres, despite a sharp increase in global crude prices triggered by the ongoing Middle East crisis. The data, released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), shows a rise from 47.3 million litres recorded in March.
The report notes that crude oil prices hit $106 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, disrupting global energy supply chains. Local refineries, including the Dangote Refinery, have struggled to secure crude stock, relying heavily on imports whose prices are dictated by global market dynamics. Petrol pump prices in Nigeria averaged N1,370 per litre in April, up 13.8 per cent from N1,180 in March.
“Despite the increase in pump prices of about 13.8 per cent from the N1,180 per litre average recorded in March, NMDPRA’s data showed that petrol consumption still rose in April.”
Combined petrol supply from the Dangote Refinery and imports rose by 10.7 per cent to 44.4 million litres per day in April. Supply from the Dangote Refinery alone increased by 19 per cent to 40.7 million litres per day, while imports dropped sharply by 37.3 per cent to 3.7 million litres per day. The Dangote Refinery achieved 99.12 per cent capacity utilisation in April, while government-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna remained inactive. Nigeria’s crude oil output rose marginally to 1.663 million barrels per day in April, including condensates.
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WANA Regional Analysis
The NMDPRA data presents a paradox that demands scrutiny: Nigerian consumers are absorbing record pump prices without a corresponding drop in demand. This defies basic economic logic in a region where fuel price elasticity is typically high. The broader implications for the ECOWAS region suggest that either the price increases have not yet reached a threshold that forces behavioural change, or that the reported consumption figures mask significant cross-border smuggling and industrial diversion.
Against this backdrop, the 19 per cent surge in Dangote Refinery supply is a double-edged sword. While it signals growing domestic refining capacity—a long-sought goal for West Africa’s largest economy—it also raises questions about the sustainability of the refinery’s crude feedstock. The 95.65 per cent drop in imported crude oil to just 0.41 million barrels in April, coupled with a 56 per cent increase in local crude supply to refineries, indicates a strategic pivot toward domestic crude allocation. However, the NMDPRA’s own data shows that Nigeria’s total crude output remains below the OPEC quota and far from the 2.2 million barrels per day needed to fully feed local refineries.
The inactivity of the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries remains a structural weakness. For the ECOWAS region, Nigeria’s inability to bring these state-owned assets online perpetuates a dependency on a single private refinery—Dangote—for 91.7 per cent of domestic supply. This concentration risk is amplified by the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz closure has already forced rerouting of tankers, adding days to delivery times and increasing freight costs. If the crisis deepens, Nigeria’s petrol supply chain could face severe disruption, with ripple effects across Ghana, Benin, Togo, and Niger, all of which rely on informal cross-border flows from Nigeria.
Furthermore, the 10.78 per cent consumption increase despite a 13.8 per cent price hike suggests that the Nigerian economy remains structurally addicted to petrol. The absence of a robust public transport alternative or a meaningful shift to compressed natural gas (CNG) means that demand is inelastic in the short term. Policymakers in Abuja must now confront a difficult calculus: either subsidise consumption to shield citizens from war premiums—risking fiscal strain—or allow market forces to drive prices higher, potentially triggering social unrest. The NMDPRA’s next monthly report will be a critical indicator of whether this consumption trend is a one-month anomaly or the new normal.
Original Reporting By: Channels Television