Beyond the Headlines: A Critical Analysis of Nigeria’s Economic Indicators Under Tinubu’s First 30 Months

Macroeconomic Stabilization and External Reserves: Omokri notes foreign reserves surpassing $45 billion, a six-year high. This is significant, but context is key. This buildup is largely attributed to two factors: the influx of foreign currency via the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) reforms (which unified exchange rates and attracted portfolio inflows) and a significant increase in external borrowing. The sustainability of this reserve level depends on continued investor confidence and the management of upcoming debt obligations. It provides a crucial buffer for the Naira but is not an isolated measure of economic health.

GDP Growth and Sectoral Momentum: Reported GDP growth of 4.23% and 3.93% in consecutive quarters signals recovery, primarily driven by non-oil sectors like agriculture, telecommunications, and financial services. This suggests some success in diversification efforts. However, economists caution that this growth must be evaluated against the base effect of previous stagnation and must translate into tangible per capita income growth for the average Nigerian to be felt as true prosperity.

The Energy Sector Transformation: The shift from Africa’s largest petrol importer to a West African exporter is a direct outcome of the controversial removal of the petrol subsidy. This policy, while causing initial price shocks, has drastically reduced the fiscal burden on the government (saving an estimated trillions of Naira) and ended the costly and corrupt subsidy regime. The drop in oil theft to a 16-year low and increased crude output to 1.71 million barrels per day are wins for security and production capacity, though global oil price volatility remains a persistent risk.

Fiscal and Market Performance: Meeting the full-year revenue target by August is unprecedented and points to improved tax administration and collection efficiency, particularly from non-oil sources (which grew 40.5%). The stock market boom, with the All-Share Index crossing 130,000 and MTN Nigeria hitting a ₦10 trillion valuation, reflects strong investor sentiment and liquidity. However, market performance can be volatile and is often driven by a narrow band of high-cap stocks, not necessarily reflecting the broader business environment for SMEs.

Inflation, Currency, and Monetary Policy: The decline in inflation from its peak to 16.05% is a positive trend, aided by the CBN’s aggressive monetary tightening. The stabilization of the Naira below ₦1,500/$ and its recognition as a top-performing currency mark a dramatic recovery from its worst levels. The recent 50-basis-point rate cut to 27% suggests the CBN perceives enough stability to cautiously pivot towards stimulating growth, a delicate balancing act.

Infrastructure and Human Capital: The 43% growth in rail transport highlights the impact of ongoing investments in that sector. The announcement of mega-projects like the Sokoto-Badagry and Lagos-Calabar highways signals long-term ambition, though their economic impact will be judged by completion, cost management, and their ability to genuinely integrate markets. The student loan scheme, benefiting over 500,000, is a major social investment aimed at building human capital and addressing access to education.

The Verdict and the Road Ahead: The upgrades from Fitch and S&P to “Stable” outlooks provide external validation of the perceived reduction in near-term macroeconomic risks. As Omokri states, effective communication of progress is vital. However, true economic success will be measured by metrics beyond these headline figures: the creation of quality jobs, the reduction of multidimensional poverty, and the translation of macroeconomic gains into improved living standards for the majority. The first 30 months have established a foundation of difficult, necessary reforms. The next phase must focus on inclusive growth, deepening these gains, and ensuring they are broadly and equitably shared across Nigerian society.