By Gai Karanja Sr., Kampala, Uganda
Sunday, 14 December 2025 (PW) — A recent communique from the SPLM and its allied parties has reaffirmed a commitment to hold national elections by December 2026, as per the extended 2024 Roadmap. This pledge, while welcome, is contingent upon resolving critical outstanding issues: completing security arrangements, amending the transitional constitution, and—most controversially—proposing amendments to the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS).
This analysis argues that while elections are an indispensable democratic imperative, the current approach risks derailing the entire process. The path to credible polls is being undermined by a shortsighted political maneuver aimed at sidelining a key figure, Dr. Riek Machar. Instead, a more viable solution lies in a fundamental constitutional shift: adopting a parliamentary system of government. This would lower the stakes of elections, reduce costs and security risks, and provide a more stable framework for governance in a fragile state.
The Democratic Imperative and Its Perils
Elections are the cornerstone of any social contract between a government and its people. They confer legitimacy, enable accountability, and are a fundamental demand of the South Sudanese citizenry after years of conflict and transitional rule. The communique’s commitment to a December 2026 date is, therefore, a crucial step.
However, this commitment is jeopardized by what appears to be a primary motive behind the proposed R-ARCSS amendments: the political exclusion of First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar. Historically, the R-ARCSS has been treated as a sacrosanct document; its provisions are reviewed and supplemented with annexes, not unilaterally amended. A move to formally amend it to remove Machar’s guaranteed role would be widely perceived as an abrogation of the core peace deal.
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This strategy is not only dangerous but historically myopic. Attempts to exclude Machar from the political process in 2013 and 2016 directly triggered renewed conflict and the very stalemate the R-ARCSS was designed to resolve. Machar is not merely a political opponent; he is a historical figure with a significant constituency, primarily among the Nuer but with growing appeal in Equatoria and among the Fertit communities. Attempting to “rule him out” through legalistic maneuvers, rather than defeating him at the ballot box, guarantees a backlash. It would likely lead the SPLM/A-IO to withdraw from the process, potentially remobilize, and cause the international community (the Troika, IGAD, AU) to withhold recognition of the elections, rendering them null in the eyes of key stakeholders.
A Constitutional Solution: The Case for a Parliamentary System
Given the twin challenges of a fragile security situation and a crippled economy, conducting a high-stakes, winner-takes-all presidential election is fraught with existential risk. Campaigns would be impossible in many conflict-affected areas (e.g., a candidate campaigning in Bor, Nasir, or Rumbek), and the financial cost of nationwide polling is prohibitive.
The pragmatic alternative is to amend the transitional constitution to establish a parliamentary system. This model offers three distinct advantages for South Sudan’s current context:
- Reduced Security Burden: Elections would be decentralized. Citizens would vote for Members of Parliament (MPs) at the county or constituency level, not for a nationwide president. This localizes campaigning and significantly reduces the need for the comprehensive, nationwide security arrangements that have been a perpetual bottleneck. A partially implemented security arrangement (e.g., 30-60% of forces unified) could suffice for parliamentary polls. The Prime Minister would then be elected by the MPs within the parliament building, eliminating the need for a perilous national campaign tour.
- Cost-Effectiveness: A parliamentary system drastically cuts election costs. There is no need for a separate, expensive presidential ballot, and the exorbitant costs associated with securing a nationwide campaign for a single office are avoided. For a nation with an “ailing economy,” this is not just an efficiency gain but a fiscal necessity.
- Accountability and Reduced Bureaucracy: This system creates a direct line of accountability. The Prime Minister and all ministers are drawn from and remain accountable to Parliament. MPs, in turn, are accountable to their constituents. It prevents the appointment of unelected outsiders to high executive office, incentivizing politicians to serve their local communities to remain relevant. Furthermore, political crises are largely contained within parliament, rather than escalating into nationwide conflict.
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The Path Forward: Consensus, Not Exclusion
The committee tasked with constitutional amendments must look beyond immediate political tactics. The goal should be to design a system that allows elections to proceed credibly despite ongoing challenges. A parliamentary system achieves this.
The prerequisite for this—or any—successful transition is abandoning the self-defeating plan to amend the R-ARCSS to isolate Dr. Machar. The focus must shift to building consensus. This means engaging all signatories, including the SPLM/A-IO, on constitutional changes. Machar must be beaten in a political contest, not rigged out of one through legal machinations. The “Museveni style” the author references implies using the existing rules of the game to secure victory over time, not changing the rules to disqualify the main opponent before the game begins.
In conclusion, credible elections in December 2026 are possible, but not under the current paradigm. The choice is clear: pursue a path of exclusion via R-ARCSS amendments that will likely collapse the peace process and trigger violence, or embrace a path of pragmatic institutional innovation via a parliamentary system that lowers stakes, contains costs, and facilitates a credible poll. The latter offers a bridge from a fragile peace to a functional democracy. The former leads back to the abyss.
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