In a sharp critique of Nigeria’s current political climate, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has argued that the recent wave of defections to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) represents a superficial strategy that is unlikely to guarantee President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027. Speaking at a party stakeholders’ meeting in Yola, Adamawa State Chairman Shehu Yohanna framed these moves not as a consolidation of power, but as a gathering of “political exiles”—a significant distinction that challenges the conventional wisdom about defection politics in Nigeria.
Yohanna’s analysis cuts to the core of a perennial debate in Nigerian politics: where does real electoral power reside? He contends, “Votes are not with governors but with the grassroots people.” This statement challenges the “big man” theory of politics, suggesting that the defection of political elites does not automatically transfer their constituents’ loyalty. Historical precedent supports this view; the 2015 election saw massive defections to the APC, which was indeed successful, but that movement was coupled with widespread public discontent against the then-ruling PDP—a potent combination of elite realignment and popular sentiment that may not be present today.
The ADC chairman characterized the APC’s new recruits as “desperate and irrelevant politicians,” including governors who have “failed woefully” and are seeking a lifeline for a second term, and others allegedly seeking “protection from Economic and Financial Crimes Commission prosecution.” He invoked former APC Chairman Adams Oshiomhole’s infamous 2018 statement—”your sins are forgiven if you join APC”—to suggest that defections are often motivated by political survival rather than ideological alignment or electoral value. This creates a party structure potentially filled with “empty vessels,” as Yohanna termed them, who bring little grassroots capital.
To illustrate this point, Yohanna pointed to the Ganye constituency assembly by-election, which he described as a damning microcosm. “Over 6,000 security agencies were mobilised… with ministers from different states, yet APC won with 96 votes,” he stated, contrasting this with the party’s 4,000-vote victory in the same seat in 2023. He presented this as empirical evidence that the APC’s “relevance in Nigeria” is eroding, despite its high-profile acquisitions. By-elections often serve as crucial political barometers, reflecting local sentiment and the effectiveness of party machinery when national attention is absent.
Looking ahead to 2027, the ADC has proposed a formidable opposition ticket: former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar for president and Peter Obi as vice-presidential candidate. Yohanna declared Atiku “the only candidate with the capacity to defeat the APC,” a claim that nods to Atiku’s vast national network and six presidential bids, but also raises questions about voter appetite for familiar faces. More compelling is Yohanna’s argument that the Tinubu administration’s own policies are its greatest opponent. He cited the controversial cash withdrawal limits (₦500,000 for individuals, ₦10 million for corporates weekly) as an example of policies that “grounded the country” and are actively “decampaigning” the government. This connects electoral fortunes directly to socioeconomic realities—inflation, currency volatility, and economic hardship—which often prove more decisive than political maneuvering.
The ADC’s strategy, therefore, focuses not on counter-defections, but on voter mobilization. Yohanna urgently called on members to register for Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), identifying this as the fundamental “key to removing President Tinubu from office.” He warned that “those banking on rigging the 2027 general elections will be disappointed,” expressing confidence in the electoral process while simultaneously calling on Nigerians to “legally and peacefully defend their votes.” This dual message—faith in institutions coupled with civic vigilance—is a nuanced approach to safeguarding democracy against what he termed the threat of a “one-party system” that would bring “democracy to its knees.”
Finally, projecting confidence inward, Yohanna assured that the ADC would sweep all 21 local government chairmanship seats and wards in the upcoming Adamawa State local elections. This local ambition underscores a critical point: national power is built on local foundations. A party that cannot win at the grassroots cannot credibly contest for the presidency. The ADC’s message is clear: the 2027 election will not be won in the banquet halls of defection ceremonies, but in the wards and polling units, through policies that resonate and a connection with the electorate that transcends temporary political alliances.