Southern Africa’s dry bean harvests could fall by as much as 78% if a strong El Niño brings drought and extreme heat.
The finding comes as the World Meteorological Organisation projects a rare “super” El Niño — an informal term scientists use for an exceptionally strong event — lasting from September 2026 into early 2027.
Moses Chitete, a research fellow at the Centre for Agricultural Research and Development at Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources in Malawi, led the review.
He said the research aimed to determine how farmers and food supplies can be better protected from climate disasters, and found that climate shocks have cut legume harvests by up to 78% in the past.
How do climate shocks affect farmers and food supplies?
Grain legumes, also known as pulses, are the most traded and consumed legume crop in southern Africa and the second-most significant source of dietary protein for people in the region.
They are also sensitive to water stress and high temperatures, particularly during flowering, pod formation and grain filling.
Losing that much of the harvest would hit smallholder farmers hard, Chitete said. Drought, extreme heat or erratic rainfall reduce agricultural production, leaving households with less food and less produce to sell.
That can push up food prices and reduce the availability of affordable protein sources. Repeated climate shocks can deepen poverty and make it harder for farming families to recover before the next season.
How could the super El Niño make the situation worse?
Chitete’s advice to farmers is not to wait until drought conditions become severe.
He recommends planting early-maturing and drought-tolerant legume varieties, conserving soil moisture, diversifying crops so that not all fail, harvesting and storing water, and following seasonal climate advice to adjust planting dates and the use of other agricultural inputs.
Governments and agricultural institutions, he said, need to strengthen early-warning systems and communicate forecasts in ways farmers can use — through extension workers, radio stations, community platforms, cooperatives, agro-dealers and other accessible channels.
Farmers must also get timely access to drought-tolerant crop varieties, planting advice and information on when and where to plant.
Legumes are ‘climate smart’, so why wouldn’t they survive?
Legumes are often described as climate-smart because some, especially cowpeas and pigeon peas, tolerate dry conditions slightly better than many cereal crops. But Chitete cautioned that the label does not guarantee survival through an El Niño.
Farmers need access to newer technologies, including affordable improved and drought-tolerant seed, irrigation and water-harvesting equipment, extension services and reliable weather information.
Access to credit and crop insurance is equally important, he said, so that one failed season does not push farmers into long-term poverty. Better storage and functioning markets matter because farmers need to protect the value of what they produce.
Interventions must also be locally appropriate: the climate risks facing a farmer in a dry area of southern Malawi may differ considerably from those facing a farmer in a higher-rainfall area.
What don’t we know about how climate change will affect legumes – and where are the biggest research gaps?
The review identified gaps in the evidence base. Chitete said there is not yet enough research on how different legume species and varieties perform when drought, heat and changing rainfall patterns combine.
Much existing research focuses on single disasters rather than how legumes cope with several at once.
Geographical gaps also matter, because evidence from one location cannot simply be applied to another where soils, rainfall, farming systems, irrigation access, markets and farmer resources differ.
He called for more long-term, location-specific research comparing crops, varieties and management practices under real farming conditions, and for work on the economics of adaptation — which technologies farmers can afford, which interventions provide the greatest returns and which policies help the poorest farmers adopt them.
What are the top three things governments should do now to protect the legume farmers?
The review found that agricultural and climate policies are not doing enough to address damaged soil, water shortages, limited irrigation, changing pest outbreaks, poor access to quality seed and unpredictable markets. Chitete outlined three priorities for governments.
First, invest in climate-resilient production systems by supporting the development and distribution of drought- and heat-tolerant legumes, improving water management and strengthening agricultural extension services.
Second, prioritise climate information and early action, linking timely, locally relevant forecasts and practical advice on planting dates, varieties and farm management to early support.
Third, reduce the financial risk farmers face by improving access to affordable credit, crop insurance, input support and reliable markets.
Climate finance, he argued, should fund drought-resilient seed, weather information services, insurance and water management, while development finance should support longer-term investments in irrigation, seed systems, storage, extension and market infrastructure that strengthen resilience beyond the El Niño season.
Protecting legume farmers, he said, requires moving beyond the idea that farmers should adapt on their own.
Source: The Conversation
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