Nigeria placed 15th of 56 Commonwealth countries in a new index of young people’s readiness to benefit from artificial intelligence, scoring 54.5 out of 100 against a study-defined benchmark of 53.
It is the last country above the line, with 41 members falling below it.
The Ayre Index, published as the inaugural White Paper of the Ayre Think Tank, was unveiled at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda.
It is described as the first comparative assessment of the conditions affecting young people’s readiness to benefit from AI across all 56 Commonwealth members, drawing on 1,128 research sources and covering roughly 732 million people aged 15 to 29.
Nigeria is one of only three African Commonwealth countries to meet the benchmark, alongside Mauritius, which ranks eighth on 64.4, and South Africa, 13th on 56.8.
Singapore tops the table on 77.6, followed by Malta on 75.0 and Australia on 71.0. The United Kingdom is fourth on 70.8 and Canada fifth on 70.2.
Malawi ranks last on 26.3.
High motivation, low measured capability
About 90% of young Nigerian respondents in the research said they expected to use AI for education or work within the following year, the highest reported share in the Index.
Some 67.8% said they felt confident controlling their interactions with the technology, and Nigeria scores 8.7 out of 10 for motivation and confidence.
Work-based learning is another strong point. Around 84 in every 1,000 young Nigerians were recorded in apprenticeships, internships or traineeships, the highest rate among the 31 Commonwealth countries with comparable data.
In a separate international survey of university students aged 18 to 29 who already used ChatGPT, 47.8% of Nigerian respondents said they often or always used it to find information for research papers, the highest share among the countries in that comparison.
The picture is weaker on measured capability. Nigeria scores 0.8 out of 10 for digital, data, media and AI capability under the Index’s selected measures.
The study notes that this score relies mainly on a household survey of conventional computer skills, such as installing software and writing programs, rather than young people’s current ability to use AI.
It also records widespread informal employment and relatively few 25 to 29-year-olds in high-skill occupations.
Economic scenarios
Applying scenarios developed by the International Monetary Fund to World Bank GDP figures, the researchers calculate that AI could raise the level of Nigeria’s GDP by US$5.234 billion after ten years under their moderate scenario.
The conservative estimate is US$2.617 billion, rising to US$7.851 billion in the optimistic case.
The White Paper is explicit about what those numbers are not.
They describe possible effects on the level of GDP after ten years, not annual increases, accumulated gains over a decade, country-specific forecasts, or the additional GDP that crossing the benchmark would cause.
The estimates concern whole economies and do not calculate how much young people would receive. The benchmark itself is a comparative research measure, not an IMF threshold or a guarantee of economic gains.
Government programmes cited
The study points to several federal initiatives. The 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) programme trains Nigerians in digital skills including AI and machine learning, and a new partnership network was launched in March 2026.
In August, the government and Meta launched AI Academy Nigeria to provide practical AI training, technical support and opportunities for startups.
In September 2026, the government launched a National AI Innovation Challenge, inviting developers, universities and startups to build applications using N-ATLAS, an AI model supporting Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo and Nigerian English.
Calvin Ayre, founder of the Ayre Think Tank, said in a statement: “I’ve spent my life in businesses where new technology changes everything, and I know you can’t stand still.
AI is going to change how we work, how we do business and how wealth is created. But this is not a race that only the biggest or richest countries can win.”
He added: “Some Commonwealth countries are ahead, others have catching up to do. Nobody can afford to be complacent.”
Professor C. Justin Robinson, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Campus Principal of the University of the West Indies, Five Islands Campus, said: “We need to make sure that the next generation will be able to do more than just consume AI products made elsewhere.
Access must come with its own agency and a real equitable stake in how these systems are governed.”
Methodology and limits
The framework comprises eight pillars, 39 sub-pillars and 111 indicators. Comparable evidence was insufficient to score the eighth pillar, critical judgement and human agency, so the published rankings use 102 indicators across seven pillars.
Each usable indicator is scored from 0 to 10 under predefined rules, averaged into sub-pillars and then pillars, which carry equal weight in the overall score out of 100.
Countries are scored on the four to seven pillars for which they have usable information.
Indicator scoring used an AI model following a fixed rubric, with second scoring producing the same result in 1,848 of 1,854 cases. The underlying data and calculation code are published alongside the Index.
The benchmark of 53 was selected after six statistical methods were used to examine the distribution of scores and comparisons with established measures of AI preparedness; five of the six methods’ uncertainty ranges include 53.
The Index measures conditions associated with readiness and does not test the AI competence of every young person. Sources span different years and age groups, and some indicators use permitted estimates or published stand-ins.
A separate Data Gap Index records missing qualifying evidence across all 111 indicators. Nigeria’s data-gap score is 17.4, with usable values for 82 of the 102 scored indicators.
A higher data-gap score indicates more missing information and does not reduce the readiness score.
The White Paper identifies five priorities: affordable and reliable access to technology; education that develops practical skills; stronger routes from training into employment and enterprise; AI tools suited to local languages and needs; and safeguards that enable young people to question automated decisions.
It calls on governments, educators and development partners to understand the particular barriers young people face in each country before deciding where investment can make the greatest impact.
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